Second Thoughts

Cybersecurity: Let’s Play to Win

Stop expecting perfection and start making it unnecessary

Aug 21 • Steve Newman

20

4

1

July 2026

Anecdotes Everywhere, Evidence Almost Nowhere

The state of AI in mid 2026, part 3

Jul 20 • Steve Newman

27

4

June 2026

Never Trust A Number

They're shortcuts to understanding, and there are no shortcuts

Jun 30 • Steve Newman

22

2

May 2026

AI Can Help Plan a Bioweapon. Building One is Still Hard.

Hurdles include facilities, materials, and steps requiring unwritten lore and hands-on experience.

May 28 • Abi Olvera

19

4

2

From Compute Overhang to Compute Crunch

The state of AI in Q2 2026, part 2

May 19 • Steve Newman

33

13

4

Is AI 2027 Coming True?

The state of AI in Q2 2026, part 1

May 7 • Steve Newman

133

25

13

April 2026

Tacit Knowledge: The Missing Factor in AI Bio Risk Assessments

Lab skills come from hands-on mentorship, not from reading the entire internet.

Apr 23 • Abi Olvera

56

26

8

The Centaur Era

The question isn't what AI can do, it's what you can do with AI

Apr 17 • Steve Newman

39

5

4

To Forecast AI's Impact on Biosecurity, We Asked: Why are Attacks So Rare?

Nine factors that practitioners say make bioweapons rare.

Apr 8 • Abi Olvera

40

11

4

March 2026

45 Thoughts About Agents

The layer of the AI stack that evolves fastest – and may have the most impact

Mar 2 • Steve Newman

62

4

11

February 2026

We Just Got a Peek at How Crazy a World With AI Agents May Be

Clawdbot and Moltbook: Cosplaying a Future of Independent AIs

Feb 10 • Steve Newman

36

7

5

January 2026

Discarding the Shaft-and-Belt Model of Software Development

AI enables – and benefits from – a move from mega-projects to artisanal solutions

Jan 14 • Steve Newman

26

5

4