Second Thoughts

From Compute Overhang to Compute Crunch

The state of AI in Q2 2026, part 2

May 19 • Steve Newman

32

13

4

Is AI 2027 Coming True?

The state of AI in Q2 2026, part 1

May 7 • Steve Newman

111

24

12

April 2026

Tacit Knowledge: The Missing Factor in AI Bio Risk Assessments

Lab skills come from hands-on mentorship, not from reading the entire internet.

Apr 23 • Abi Olvera

50

25

8

The Centaur Era

The question isn't what AI can do, it's what you can do with AI

Apr 17 • Steve Newman

39

5

4

To Forecast AI's Impact on Biosecurity, We Asked: Why are Attacks So Rare?

Nine factors that practitioners say make bioweapons rare.

Apr 8 • Abi Olvera

38

10

4

March 2026

45 Thoughts About Agents

The layer of the AI stack that evolves fastest – and may have the most impact

Mar 2 • Steve Newman

62

4

11

February 2026

We Just Got a Peek at How Crazy a World With AI Agents May Be

Clawdbot and Moltbook: Cosplaying a Future of Independent AIs

Feb 10 • Steve Newman

36

7

5

January 2026

Discarding the Shaft-and-Belt Model of Software Development

AI enables – and benefits from – a move from mega-projects to artisanal solutions

Jan 14 • Steve Newman

25

5

4

Software Too Cheap to Meter

Personalized solutions may replace one-size-fits-all applications

Jan 6 • Steve Newman

31

7

3

December 2025

Presenting the Case That the Future Will Be Unrecognizable

We should prepare for the possibility of profound change

Dec 19, 2025 • Steve Newman

79

20

10

November 2025

Reflections on The Curve

A compilation

Nov 20, 2025 • Steve Newman and Rachel Weinberg

12

2

Hyperproductivity: The Next Stage of AI?

A glimpse at an astonishing, exhilarating, exhausting new style of work

Nov 19, 2025 • Steve Newman

184

18

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