Second Thoughts

To Forecast AI's Impact on Biosecurity, We Asked: Why are Attacks So Rare?

Nine factors that practitioners say make bioweapons rare.

Apr 8 • Abi Olvera

25

6

3

March 2026

45 Thoughts About Agents

The layer of the AI stack that evolves fastest – and may have the most impact

Mar 2 • Steve Newman

58

4

11

February 2026

We Just Got a Peek at How Crazy a World With AI Agents May Be

Clawdbot and Moltbook: Cosplaying a Future of Independent AIs

Feb 10 • Steve Newman

35

7

5

January 2026

Discarding the Shaft-and-Belt Model of Software Development

AI enables – and benefits from – a move from mega-projects to artisanal solutions

Jan 14 • Steve Newman

25

5

4

Software Too Cheap to Meter

Personalized solutions may replace one-size-fits-all applications

Jan 6 • Steve Newman

31

7

3

December 2025

Presenting the Case That the Future Will Be Unrecognizable

We should prepare for the possibility of profound change

Dec 19, 2025 • Steve Newman

78

20

10

November 2025

Reflections on The Curve

A compilation

Nov 20, 2025 • Steve Newman and Rachel Weinberg

12

2

Hyperproductivity: The Next Stage of AI?

A glimpse at an astonishing, exhilarating, exhausting new style of work

Nov 19, 2025 • Steve Newman

183

18

24

A Coalition For The Future

If we can keep it

Nov 11, 2025 • Anton Leicht

13

1

A Project Is Not a Bundle of Tasks

Current AIs struggle to create a whole that exceeds the sum of its parts

Nov 4, 2025 • Steve Newman

84

7

16

October 2025

What I Saw Around The Curve

Notes from the near-future of AI

Oct 29, 2025 • Steve Newman

95

19

20

The Future and Its Friends

On the march through the institutions

Published on Hyperdimensional • Oct 17, 2025