Second Thoughts

We’re In the Windows 95 Era of AI Agent Security

Headed for widespread usage, and insecure by design

Sep 10 • 

Steve Newman

23

1

GPT-5: The Case of the Missing Agent

AI has made enormous progress in the last 16 months. Agentic AI seems farther off than ever.

Sep 4 • 

Steve Newman

93

17

August 2025

35 Thoughts About AGI and 1 About GPT-5

Such As: How do Teenagers Learn to Drive 10,000x Faster Than Waymo?

Aug 14 • 

Steve Newman

284

41

July 2025

Short Takes #2

Slow Adoption Applies To Evil AI, Too, The Market for AI Coding Tools Could Be Dwarfed by Health Care Administration, Why Do Radiologists Still Have…

Jul 18 • 

Steve Newman

, 

TarenSK

, and 

Rachel Weinberg

10

7

Not So Fast: AI Coding Tools Can Actually Reduce Productivity

Study Shows That Even Experienced Developers Dramatically Overestimate Gains

Jul 10 • 

Steve Newman

99

29

June 2025

The Curve 2025: The Premier Big Picture AI Conference

October 3-5 at Lighthaven, in Berkeley, CA

Jun 24 • 

Rachel Weinberg

 and 

Steve Newman

8

Short Takes #1

The Big Picture on Cybersecurity, We May Be Underestimating Meta AI, Where LLMs are Heading, And More

Jun 16 • 

Steve Newman

 and 

TarenSK

8

2

May 2025

Lab vs. Life: Dissecting “AI as Normal Technology”

What if AGI Can't Be Developed in an Ivory Tower?

May 30 • 

Steve Newman

20

12

When Decades Become Days: Dissecting AI 2027

The Four Requirements for a Short AI Timeline

May 21 • 

Steve Newman

26

3

Announcing the Golden Gate Institute for AI

And why "Am I Stronger Yet?" is now "Second Thoughts"

May 9 • 

Steve Newman

76

11

April 2025

First, They Came for the Software Engineers…

What 25 interviews tell us about AI's messy impact on tech work

Apr 29 • 

TarenSK

50

7

Finally, A Way to Measure AI Progress; Everyone's Misreading It

That METR Study Doesn’t Say "AGI in 5 Years"

Apr 24 • 

Steve Newman

27

13